Research

    Weather research, measured properly

    Every study here matches real games to archived game-window weather, then asks a simple question: does the condition actually move the scoreboard? Comparisons are season-adjusted, every band carries a t-statistic, and nothing publishes under a 40-game minimum sample.

    Thin samples are labelled directional evidence rather than hidden. When a popular weather narrative fails the test, we publish that too.

    NFL

    NFL Wind & Totals

    Wind under 10 mph does nothing to scoring. At 10–15 mph a game loses about 2.6 points; at 15–20 mph, about 4. Winning margins don't move — it is purely a totals effect.

    3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    The moderate and strong wind bands carry real statistical weight; the 20+ mph band is directional evidence only.

    Read the study

    NFL Turnovers in Bad Weather

    Turnovers rise clearly when rain and cold arrive together. Fumbles lost do not rise to the same degree — who recovers a loose ball is close to a coin flip.

    3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    League-wide turnover rates fell from 3.49 to 2.31 per game across the window, so every comparison is season-adjusted for era drift.

    Read the study

    NFL Climate Shock: Dome Teams in the Cold

    Climate shocks are rare, but when dome and warm-weather teams play outdoors in the cold the Under has hit 71.4%, landing 6.8 points below the closing total.

    1,689 outdoor games across 10 seasons, era-aware venue history

    Venue history is applied per season so historical outdoor eras are not misclassified as dome teams.

    Read the study

    MLB

    MLB Wind Direction & Scoring

    Wind blowing in costs 0.25 home runs and 0.41 runs per game against calm. Wind blowing out lifts home runs (+0.18) but not total runs.

    11,581 outdoor games, 2021–2026, resolved against each park's own field bearing

    Direction relative to the park's orientation matters more than raw speed — the speed-only cut is mostly noise.

    Read the study

    AFL

    AFL Rain & Scoring

    Wet games cost 13.6 points on a season-adjusted basis, with the wet end of the scale running at about 3.5 points per millimetre of rain.

    4,349 matches across two decades, match-window rainfall

    Dry matches are the control group, and the gap grows with every millimetre.

    Read the study

    College Football

    College Football Wind & Kicking

    Crosswind — resolved against each venue's true field bearing — bends field-goal accuracy. Game totals show no material deviation.

    4,330 games

    A kicking effect, not a totals effect: the same wind that moves a field goal barely moves the scoreboard.

    Read the study

    College Football Heat & Humidity Shock

    Do cool-climate teams underperform when they travel into hot, humid Southern venues in August and September? Graded against closing lines, with control games alongside.

    Ten seasons of Aug–Sept road games

    Program climate baselines and kickoff-hour dew points, tested the boring way.

    Read the study

    College Football Extreme Heat & Totals

    A widely repeated claim says non-conference games go Over about 59% of the time at 85–106°F. Our data: 52.8% against a 49.1% control — no meaningful edge.

    Ten seasons of kickoff-hour temperatures graded against closing totals

    A good example of why we test popular weather narratives before repeating them.

    Read the study

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