Research
College football dome scoring and the closing total
Our NFL study found dome totals closing about two points too low. We ran the same test on college football: every game since 2016, measured against both teams' own season scoring, then against the closing total.
The headline
Indoor college football games finished -0.4 points against the closing total across 244 games with lines. That is statistically flat. The NFL dome gap does not carry over to college football.
College indoor vs close
-0.4 pts
102 Overs · 139 Unders
244 games · t = -0.45
College outdoor vs close
+0.4 pts
3,365 Overs · 3,466 Unders
6,902 games · t = 2.07
NFL indoor vs close
+2.2 pts
208 Overs · 174 Unders
385 games · t = 3.27 · 2019–2025
Key finding in plain English
In the NFL, betting totals for dome games have been set too low. In college football they have not. Campus domes like Syracuse and UTSA land almost exactly on the closing total. College games played in NFL domes lean slightly Under, but not by enough to rule out chance. If you want a dome angle, it is an NFL angle.
Venue types side by side
| Venue type | Games | Avg points | vs expected | vs close | Over–Under | Over % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All indoor | 246 | 55.5 | -1.6t = -1.45 | -0.4t = -0.45 | 102–139 | 42.3% |
| Campus domes | 154 | 57.0 | +2.3t = 1.76 | +0.2t = 0.19 | 68–83 | 45.0% |
| NFL domes (college games) | 92 | 53.2 | -8.2t = -4.27 | -1.6t = -1.05 | 34–56 | 37.8% |
| Outdoor | 6,936 | 55.2 | +0.1t = 0.26 | +0.4t = 2.07 | 3,365–3,466 | 49.3% |
NFL domes host big-stage college games whose teams score well above average all season, so their large shortfall against expectation mostly reflects regression to the mean. Against the closing total the gap nearly disappears.
Every matchup group, indoor and outdoor
Matchups are grouped by expected score: both teams' season points per game, leaving out the game itself. "vs expected" is season-adjusted.
| Expected score | Venue | Games | Avg points | vs expected | vs close | Over–Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45directional only | Indoor | 21 | 50.4 | +12.5t = 4.23 | +1.6t = 0.53 | 13–6 |
| Under 45 | Outdoor | 819 | 48.6 | +10.7t = 18.80 | +0.2t = 0.29 | 401–400 |
| 45-52 | Indoor | 43 | 49.7 | +3.1t = 1.34 | -2.5t = -1.05 | 14–28 |
| 45-52 | Outdoor | 1,307 | 52.6 | +6.1t = 13.00 | +1.0t = 2.28 | 631–651 |
| 52-59 | Indoor | 58 | 53.9 | +0.7t = 0.30 | -0.6t = -0.26 | 21–37 |
| 52-59 | Outdoor | 1,764 | 53.5 | +0.4t = 1.04 | -0.4t = -0.96 | 846–898 |
| 59+ | Indoor | 124 | 59.2 | -6.8t = -4.31 | 0.0t = 0.00 | 54–68 |
| 59+ | Outdoor | 3,046 | 59.0 | -5.6t = -16.74 | +0.7t = 2.15 | 1,487–1,517 |
Bold figures clear |t| ≥ 1.96 with at least 40 games. The pattern of low-expectation games beating their averages and high-expectation games falling short appears outdoors too, so it is not a dome effect.
Method and limits
- 7,182 regular and postseason games in our archive, 2016–2025, of which 246 were indoors. Teams need at least three games in a season to have an expected score.
- Campus domes: JMA Wireless Dome, Alamodome, Allegiant Stadium (UNLV home games from 2020), Kibbie Dome and Fargodome. Every other indoor venue is an NFL dome hosting a college game.
- Season averages come only from games in our archive, which leans toward FBS matchups; games against unlisted opponents are not counted.
- Closing totals are ESPN consensus lines. 7,146 of 7,182 games have one. Pushes are excluded from Over–Under records.
- The 40-game minimum and |t| ≥ 1.96 threshold were set before any group was inspected. The campus/NFL-dome split was chosen before the run; the Under lean in NFL domes was noticed afterwards and is directional only.
- This is a historical pattern, not a prediction for any single game.
Data generated 2026-09-24.
Share this finding
Free to republish with a visible credit and a link to the study page.
Related research
- NFL Dome Scoring Study — where dome totals did close too low.
- College Football Rain & Totals Study — heavy rain against the closing total.
- All research
References & data sources
- ESPN college football scoreboard and odds — espn.com/college-football (schedules, final scores and consensus closing totals)
- Internal college football historical game archive: venue type, final scores and ESPN consensus closing totals.
- Every dated change we have made to a published study is listed on our corrections log.
Where this is applied
These findings feed the game-time read on every College Football venue page, using the same sample-size and significance rules published here.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.
Frequently asked
Which college football stadiums are domes?
Three FBS teams play home games under a roof: Syracuse (JMA Wireless Dome), UTSA (Alamodome) and UNLV (Allegiant Stadium, since 2020). Idaho's Kibbie Dome and North Dakota State's Fargodome also appear. Many more indoor college games are played in NFL domes such as AT&T Stadium, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Lucas Oil Stadium and Ford Field: kickoff games, conference title games and bowls.
Do college football games score more in domes?
Barely. Indoor games averaged 55.5 total points against 55.2 outdoors between 2016 and 2025. Against both teams' own season scoring, campus domes ran +2.3 points above expectation (t = 1.76), which is not statistically significant.
Does the betting market price college dome games correctly?
In our data, yes. Indoor games finished -0.4 points against the closing total (t = -0.45, n = 244). That is well inside normal noise, and very different from the NFL, where dome games finished 2.2 points above the number.
Is there an Under lean in college dome games?
The record leans Under (102 Overs, 139 Unders), mostly from big-stage games in NFL domes (34–56). But the average margin against the total is small and not significant, and we only noticed the split after seeing the data. We treat it as directional, not an edge.
Why would college domes differ from the NFL?
We have not tested why. One likely reason: NFL domes host college games between two strong teams (title games, bowls, marquee openers), and those matchups already carry high totals that tend to fall short, indoors or out. Campus domes host ordinary schedules and the market prices them like any other venue.