Editorial policy

We publish original analyses that match historical sports results to archived game-window weather. A study goes live only when the data have been checked, the methodology can be described in plain language, and the result is reproducible from the sources we name. Null results and directional-only findings are published alongside clear positives; a popular weather narrative that fails the test is still a result worth sharing.

• Game-window matching. Weather is read across the actual hours of play, not a single snapshot or a daily average. For outdoor sports this means reanalysis wind, rainfall and temperature at the venue's own coordinates.
• Season adjustment. League scoring drifts over time, so every comparison measures a game against the average of its own season rather than the whole sample. Without this, a high-scoring era would flatter some weather bands and punish others.
• Pre-set thresholds. We require a minimum sample size and a significance threshold before quoting a number. Those thresholds are set before the analysis is run, not adjusted to admit an interesting row.
• t-statistics on every band. Every quoted effect carries a t statistic so the reader can see how noisy it is. Roughly |t| = 2 is our conventional boundary for treating a result as reliable.
• Park and venue orientation. For sports where field direction matters, wind is resolved against each venue's own bearing. Raw speed without direction is often misleading.

We rely on public and archival data rather than private feeds. Game results and box scores come from official and widely used sports archives; weather comes from the ERA5 reanalysis served by Open-Meteo at each venue's coordinates. Where closing betting lines are used, they come from consensus sports-data feeds or aggregated historical odds archives, not a single sportsbook.

Every study page lists the exact sources it used. Internal archives — venue coordinates, matched conditions and matched closing lines — are maintained transparently and refreshed as new seasons complete.

We do not pick results to suit a narrative. When a published number turns out to be wrong — because of a data error, a methodology fix, or a larger sample changing the conclusion — we change it, date it, and record it in the public corrections log. Pre-publication fixes are common and are not logged individually; only changes to already-published studies are.

Bands that fall below the minimum sample are greyed out and described as directional evidence. They are never used in headlines, summary stats, or live pricing until the data support them.

These studies measure average weather effects, not team-specific or player-specific outcomes. They do not control for everything: team quality, play-calling, injuries, altitude, turf type, and unmeasured gusts can all matter. The findings are inputs for understanding how a game is likely to play, not guaranteed betting edges.

Questions about a study, its data, or its methodology can be sent to support@stadiumedge.com.

• Open-Meteo ERA5 historical reanalysis — archive-api.open-meteo.com (hourly game-window weather at each venue’s own coordinates)
• Open-Meteo geocoding API — open-meteo.com/en/docs/geocoding-api (venue coordinates and elevation)
• Internal matched archive — venue coordinates, historical game outcomes, game-window weather, and closing lines where used.
• Every dated change we have made to a published study is listed on our corrections log.