Research Desk · Golf
Does the Wave Draw Cost Strokes? A PGA Tour Wind Study
By OverUnderWeather Research Desk
We matched every first- and second-round tee time at 228 PGA Tour events (2021–2026) to hourly wind at the course, then compared the morning and afternoon waves.
1.5
strokes per player for every 10 mph of extra wind
456
tournament days across 228 events
49% vs 56%
cut rate, windy vs calm side (directional)
Key takeaway
The wave that draws more wind pays for it: about 1.5 strokes per player for every 10 mph of extra wind.
95% range 1.15–1.84 strokes per 10 mph (0.715–1.143 per 10 km/h). The range comes from resampling whole events, so players in the same week aren't counted as independent.
Scoring gap by wind gap
Afternoon wave average minus morning wave average, in strokes per player. Red means the afternoon scored worse; green means the morning did.
Groups with fewer than 40 tournament days are labelled directional only.
Making the cut
Where one wave faced at least 5 mph more wind across both days, players on the unlucky side made the cut 49% of the time vs 56% on the lucky side, and scored 0.883 strokes worse over 36 holes (95% CI 0.534–1.233).
Directional only: just 21 events qualify.
How we did it
- 1A wave is the morning or afternoon group. In rounds 1 and 2 players swap, so early Thursday means late Friday.
- 2Each player's wind is the average of the hourly readings starting in their tee-time hour. Tee off in the 8am hour and you get the average of 8am to 12pm.
- 3Why 5 hours: the PGA Tour's median round is about 4 hours 46 minutes, and slow rounds stretch the tail rather than following a bell curve.
- 4The unit is the tournament day, because players in the same wave share the same weather.
Every check we ran
| Window | Strokes per 10 mph | 95% range (per 10 km/h) |
|---|---|---|
| 3h | 1.13 | 0.51–0.903 |
| 4h | 1.32 | 0.621–1.02 |
| 5h (main) | 1.5 | 0.715–1.143 |
| 6h | 1.68 | 0.803–1.276 |
The effect holds whatever window we use. The 3-hour window is shorter than any real round and is only a lower bound.
Days with similar wind in both waves (gap under about 1 mph): afternoon scored 0.106 strokes worse (95% CI -0.008 to 0.219, p = 0.0685, 179 days). Calm days in both waves: 0.161 (95% CI -0.034 to 0.356, p = 0.104). Neither is significant, so time of day alone explains little of the gap.
Limitations
- Weather is modelled at the course point, not measured on the course, so tree lines and local gusts aren't captured.
- Rounds 1–2 only; weekend tee times are sorted by score.
- The making-the-cut result rests on 21 events.
Sources
- Tee times and scores: ESPN golf data, 2021–2026.
- Hourly weather: Open-Meteo historical archive.
- Round duration: GOLF.com, "PGA Tour making pace of play public" (April 2026).
- Round-time distribution: "Analyzing the Pace of Play in Golf: The Golf Course as a Factory".
- Related research: Jowett & Phillips (2023), "The effect of weather conditions on scores at the United States Masters golf tournament", International Journal of Biometeorology — a peer-reviewed study of 40 Masters tournaments that also found wind and temperature move golf scores. It uses day-level weather at one course; our study asks the intraday question it leaves open: which wave gets the wind.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.
Methodology reviewed by Kerry G. KauffmanB.S. in Statistics, Lehigh University
“So, everything looks really solid from the standpoint of methodology.”— Kerry G. Kauffman, 2026-10-21
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Frequently asked
Does the tee time draw matter in golf?
Yes, when the wind differs between waves. Across 456 event-rounds, the wave facing more wind scored about 1.5 strokes worse per player for every 10 mph of extra wind.
Why only rounds 1 and 2?
In the first two rounds the morning and afternoon groups swap, so neither wave is stronger on average. On the weekend, tee times are set by score, which would mix skill into the comparison.
Is the weather measured at the course?
No. It is modelled hourly weather from the Open-Meteo archive at each course's own coordinates, not readings from an on-course station.