Research
Corrections log
When a published number, classification or headline turns out to be wrong, we change it and say so. Every such change is listed here with its date, alongside the dated note that stays on the study page itself.
This log covers corrections to work that was already public. Problems caught before a study publishes are more common than the handful below — a coefficient about to be borrowed from another sport instead of measured on its own record, a sample that drifts across an era, a band too thin to quote. Those are fixed in the method so the study goes live correct, and they are not individually logged here. So this page is not the complete list of issues we have found in our own work; it is the complete list of ones that ever reached a reader.
Numbers on every study also refresh as the weather archive and closing-odds backfills top up. Routine refreshes are not corrections and are not listed here.
13 September 2026
NFL Wind & Totals
What was wrong: The 20+ mph "gale" band (n=40) was presented alongside the moderate and strong bands as though it carried the same weight, and the filtered strong-wind result was described without noting how close it sits to our significance threshold.
What we corrected: The gale band is now labelled directional evidence only — n=40 merely clears our pre-existing minimum sample and is not a reliable standalone finding — and it is excluded from headlines, summary statistics and any pricing or lean use. The filtered strong-wind wording now states plainly that the scoring loss remains after excluding wet and colder games but is reduced and sits near the threshold for statistical significance.
Read the NFL Wind & Totals study11 September 2026
College Football Rain & Totals
What was wrong: The season table showed an empty 2024 row and only 6 games for 2025, which read as if almost no games were played in those seasons.
What we corrected: Those rows now say "No closing totals captured yet — odds backfill pending", and the limitations section explains that the gap is incomplete historical odds coverage, not missing games. The closing-line backfill has since filled most of it and the tables update automatically as it completes.
Read the College Football Rain & Totals study3 September 2026
College Football Wind & Kicking
What was wrong: The headline claimed strong crosswind cost about 5.3 points of field-goal accuracy. That figure came from distance bands holding only 8–26 attempts each — well below our own 40-attempt minimum.
What we corrected: The headline was recalculated using only bands that clear the minimum sample. At sample sizes we trust, crosswind does not measurably move college field-goal accuracy, and the study now says so. The original number is described on the study page in a dated correction note rather than quietly removed.
Read the College Football Wind & Kicking study2 September 2026
MLB Wind Direction & Scoring
What was wrong: Coors Field was stored with a home-plate-to-centre-field bearing of 35°, which disagreed with published orientation figures. Since wind is classified as blowing out, in or across relative to that bearing, a wrong bearing misclassifies every windy game at the park.
What we corrected: The bearing was corrected to 0° (north) before the analysis was run, matching the published figures in Andrew Clem’s stadium tables and The Shadium. All 31 park orientations were verified against published figures and aerial imagery as a pre-analysis step, and that check is now part of the method rather than something done after seeing results.
Read the MLB Wind Direction & Scoring study29 August 2026
NFL Climate Shock
What was wrong: The Raiders were classified by their current venue, so games played outdoors in Oakland through 2019 would have been counted as dome-team road games — inflating the pool of "climate shock" matchups.
What we corrected: Venue type is now applied per season: Oakland games through 2019 count as outdoor, Las Vegas games from 2020 count as enclosed. The qualifying-game count and every band was recomputed on the corrected classification.
Read the NFL Climate Shock study