Research
Which MLB ballparks does the wind actually move?
By OverUnderWeather Research Desk
“Wind blowing out, take the Over” gets applied to every park. We split six seasons of outdoor games by ballpark and measured how much wind blowing out vs in really changes runs at each one.
The headline
Across 11,581 outdoor games at 30 parks (2021–2026), wind sensitivity is concentrated in a handful of ballparks. 4 of 18 parks with enough games show a real out-vs-in gap — and Wrigley Field is in a league of its own.
Wrigley: out minus in, runs
+4.04
t = 6.62
Wrigley: wind out vs close
+1.62
t = 3.02 · directional
Wrigley: wind in vs close
-0.32
t = -1.12
Key finding in plain English
At Wrigley Field, a game with the wind blowing out has scored about four more runs than one with the wind blowing in. At most other parks the same wind changes scoring by a run or less, and at several it makes no measurable difference at all.
Park ranking: most to least wind-sensitive
| Park | Out / in games | Runs, wind out | Runs, wind in | Out minus in | t | Out vs close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 106 / 176 | +2.37 | -1.68 | +4.04 | 6.62 | +1.62 |
| Fenway Park | 137 / 76 | +0.68 | -1.56 | +2.23 | 3.75 | +0.91 |
| Busch Stadium | 70 / 43 | +0.32 | -1.16 | +1.47 | 2.11 | +0.39 |
| PNC Park | 139 / 43 | +0.77 | -0.64 | +1.41 | 2.05 | +1.49 |
| Yankee Stadium | 96 / 56 | +0.46 | -0.64 | +1.10 | 1.57 (noise) | +0.46 |
| Kauffman Stadium | 97 / 69 | +0.38 | -0.69 | +1.07 | 1.57 (noise) | +0.11 |
| Nationals Park | 93 / 49 | +0.92 | -0.07 | +1.00 | 1.16 (noise) | +1.55 |
| Guaranteed Rate Field | 52 / 90 | +0.17 | -0.40 | +0.57 | 0.67 (noise) | +0.25 |
| Citi Field | 167 / 40 | +0.58 | +0.16 | +0.42 | 0.48 (noise) | +0.81 |
| Comerica Park | 84 / 67 | +0.33 | +0.09 | +0.24 | 0.34 (noise) | +0.60 |
| American Family Field | 41 / 76 | -0.27 | -0.40 | +0.13 | 0.18 (noise) | +0.09 |
| Progressive Field | 52 / 158 | -0.09 | +0.05 | -0.13 | -0.22 (noise) | -0.10 |
| Rogers Centre | 95 / 47 | -0.04 | +0.13 | -0.17 | -0.25 (noise) | +0.41 |
| Citizens Bank Park | 156 / 51 | +0.44 | +0.62 | -0.19 | -0.22 (noise) | +0.73 |
| Truist Park | 104 / 73 | +0.10 | +0.30 | -0.20 | -0.29 (noise) | +0.43 |
| Target Field | 88 / 78 | -0.13 | +0.28 | -0.41 | -0.58 (noise) | +0.45 |
| Coors Field | 45 / 134 | -0.52 | +0.02 | -0.54 | -0.68 (noise) | -0.90 |
| Great American Ball Park | 117 / 43 | -0.06 | +0.66 | -0.72 | -0.79 (noise) | +0.25 |
Runs are relative to that park's own season average. "Out vs close" is runs above or below the closing total in wind-out games; per-park market gaps were noticed after looking at the data and are directional only.
Too few games to rank
These parks have fewer than 40 games with wind blowing out or in (usually in), so we don't rank them.
Chase Field (5 out / 4 in) · Marlins Park (1 out / 25 in) · Oriole Park at Camden Yards (72 out / 37 in) · Globe Life Field (12 out / 15 in) · Minute Maid Park (10 out / 0 in) · Petco Park (57 out / 6 in) · Oracle Park (457 out / 0 in) · Angel Stadium (401 out / 2 in) · T-Mobile Park (60 out / 38 in) · Sutter Health Park (92 out / 1 in) · Oakland Coliseum (243 out / 1 in) · Dodger Stadium (387 out / 1 in)
Method
- Outdoor games only (2021–2026); roof-closed and dome games excluded.
- Wind is the game-window archive reading, resolved against each park's own home-plate-to-center-field bearing into out, in or across (5 mph and up).
- Each game's runs are measured against its park-season average; out and in groups are compared with a Welch t-test.
- Parks are ranked only with 40+ games in both groups; a gap counts as real only at |t| ≥ 1.96.
- Closing totals are ESPN consensus lines; 11,547 games have one.
Related research
Where this is applied
These findings feed the game-time read on every MLB venue page, using the same sample-size and significance rules published here.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.
Methodology reviewed by Kerry G. KauffmanB.S. in Statistics, Lehigh University
“After examining the complete methodology and structure of the study, I am in agreement that the Welch’s t-test is the appropriate method when comparing two means.”— Kerry G. Kauffman, 2026-09-26
Cite this research
Free to republish with a visible credit and a link to this page. Ready-made citations below — click to copy.
Frequently asked
Which MLB park is most affected by wind?
Wrigley Field, by a wide margin. Against the same park in the same season, games with wind blowing out scored about 4.0 more runs than games with wind blowing in (t = 6.62, 106 out games vs 176 in games). No other park comes close.
Does wind matter the same at every ballpark?
No. Only 4 of the 18 parks with enough games to read — Wrigley Field, Fenway Park, Busch Stadium and PNC Park — show an out-vs-in gap big enough to count as real. At the other 14 it is too small to separate from noise. Enclosed bowls and parks where the wind rarely blows straight in or out barely react.
Does the betting total already price wind at Wrigley?
Not fully in our sample: out-blowing games at Wrigley finished 1.62 runs above the closing total (t = 3.02). Because we tested 30 parks and this stood out after looking at the data, treat it as directional, not a proven edge.
Why are some parks marked "too few games"?
We require at least 40 games in both the wind-out and wind-in groups before ranking a park. Parks like Oracle Park and Dodger Stadium almost never see wind blowing in, so their gap cannot be measured fairly.