NFL weather data
How Wind and Cold Affect NFL Field Goals: 11,697 Kicks Analyzed
By OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Every field-goal attempt in an outdoor NFL game since 2008 — 11,697 kicks, makes and misses alike — measured against what a kick of the same length, in the same season, in the same venue type was expected to do. The result: wind is the real enemy of the kicking game, especially from 40 yards and beyond, while cold matters less than its reputation. Domes, where none of this applies, are the control group.
The short answer
Wind
Real and measurable: 10–14 mph costs about 1.6 points of make rate overall, and 3.5–4.0 points on kicks of 40+ yards.
Cold
Smaller than its reputation: freezing games run about 1.9 points below expectation — within noise on its own.
Domes
87.2% indoors across 5,456 kicks, with the biggest edge on 50+ yard attempts.
Field goal accuracy by wind speed
Each kick is compared with the expected make rate for its distance, season and venue type, so two decades of kicking improvement and the huge effect of distance are removed before weather is compared at all.
| Wind | Kicks | Made | Expected | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm (under 10mph) | 8,495 | 86.6% | 85.8% | +0.8real difference |
| Moderate (10–14mph) | 2,422 | 84.6% | 86.2% | -1.6real difference |
| Strong (15–19mph) | 640 | 84.1% | 86.6% | -2.5within noise |
| Gale (20mph+) | 140 | 84.3% | 89.0% | -4.7within noise |
The 20+ mph band has 140 kicks over 18 seasons — coaches simply stop attempting long field goals in a gale, which is itself part of the story.
Where wind hurts most: the distance grid
Short kicks survive almost anything. The damage concentrates in the 40+ yard bands, where the ball is in the air longest.
| Distance | Wind | Kicks | Made | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40 yd | Calm | 4,634 | 95.6% | +0.4within noise |
| Under 40 yd | Moderate | 1,385 | 95.1% | -0.1within noise |
| Under 40 yd | Strong | 363 | 92.3% | -2.8real difference |
| Under 40 yd | Gale | 93 | 92.5% | -2.5within noise |
| 40–49 yd | Calm | 2,583 | 80.3% | +1.4within noise |
| 40–49 yd | Moderate | 692 | 74.9% | -3.5real difference |
| 40–49 yd | Strong | 208 | 75.5% | -2.8within noise |
| 40–49 yd | Gale | 35 | 65.7% | -14.9directional only |
| 50+ yd | Calm | 1,278 | 67.0% | +1.2within noise |
| 50+ yd | Moderate | 345 | 62.0% | -4.0within noise |
| 50+ yd | Strong | 69 | 66.7% | -0.6within noise |
| 50+ yd | Gale | 12 | 75.0% | +8.4directional only |
Field goal accuracy by temperature
Cold is real but modest, and the freezing band on its own does not clear our significance test. Cold air is denser, so the bigger effect is on range: coaches attempt fewer long kicks in the cold, which masks some of the accuracy cost.
| Temperature | Kicks | Made | Expected | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freezing (under 32°F) | 657 | 85.8% | 87.7% | -1.9within noise |
| Cold (32–49°F) | 2,970 | 85.0% | 86.4% | -1.3real difference |
| Mild (50–69°F) | 4,769 | 86.3% | 85.9% | +0.4within noise |
| Warm (70°F+) | 3,301 | 86.7% | 85.3% | +1.3real difference |
The control group: domes
Indoors, kickers converted 87.2% of 5,456 attempts — and the indoor advantage grows with distance, reaching 72.0% from 50+ yards versus 66.0% outdoors. A dome removes wind entirely, and wind is the weather variable that actually moves kicking. Denver is the partial exception outdoors: thin air at 5,280 feet adds real carry — see our Mile High altitude guide.
What to check before kickoff
- Sustained wind, not gusts. The drop-off starts around 10 mph and is clear by 15 mph, especially on kicks of 40+ yards.
- Attempt behavior. In strong wind, coaches go for it or punt instead of trying 50-yarders — the misses you don't see are part of the cost.
- Stadium orientation. Some venues swirl or funnel wind — see the windiest NFL stadiums and each venue's live forecast.
- This week's games. Live per-game kicking forecasts are on the NFL kicking conditions index.
How we measured it
11,697 outdoor regular-season field-goal attempts, 2008–2025, by 313 kickers, parsed from the public ESPN drive feed and joined to each game's weather snapshot. Every kick is measured against the expected make rate for its distance, season and venue type. We only call a difference real when its t statistic passes ±1.96 and the band has at least 40 kicks; smaller bands are labelled directional only. The full method, era-drift checks and corrections are in our NFL kicker weather accuracy study. Related: the coldest NFL games and snow games.
Where this is applied
These findings feed the game-time read on every NFL venue page, using the same sample-size and significance rules published here.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.
Cite this research
Free to republish with a visible credit and a link to this page. Ready-made citations below — click to copy.
Frequently asked
How much does wind affect NFL field goals?
From 40 yards and beyond, a lot. Kicks of 40–49 yards in 10–14 mph winds fell 3.5 points below their expected make rate (74.9% vs 78.4%), and 50+ yard kicks fell 4.0 points. Under 40 yards, wind barely matters until it reaches 15 mph or more.
At what wind speed do NFL kickers struggle?
The drop starts around 10 mph for longer kicks and becomes clear at 15 mph. Across all distances, kicks in 15–19 mph winds finished 2.5 points below expectation, and kicks in 20+ mph winds finished 4.7 points below — though only 140 kicks in our sample came in 20+ mph winds, so treat that band as directional.
Does cold weather affect field goal accuracy?
Less than wind does. Freezing games (under 32°F) came in 1.9 points below the expected make rate, but that difference does not clear our significance test. The cold band that does is 32–49°F at -1.3 points. Cold air is denser, which costs distance more than accuracy — teams simply attempt fewer long kicks in the cold.
How much farther can kickers kick in warm weather or at altitude?
Our distance-bucket data shows make rates improving about 0.18 points per degree Fahrenheit on 50+ yard kicks, and our Denver altitude guide found 68.0% of 50+ yard attempts made at Mile High versus 62.4% at other outdoor venues. Thin, warm air helps the ball carry.
Do domes really help kickers?
Yes. Indoor kicks converted at 87.2% across 5,456 attempts, and the indoor edge grows with distance: 72.0% from 50+ yards indoors versus 66.0% outdoors. A dome removes wind entirely, which is the biggest weather factor in kicking.
Do oddsmakers already price in kicking weather?
Largely, yes — these are historical patterns measured against what each kick was expected to do, not a betting system. Wind forecasts also firm up close to kickoff. Treat this as context for understanding a game, not a recommendation to bet.