NFL weather guide
How Rain Affects NFL Games: What 20 Seasons of Wet Football Show
By OverUnderWeather Research Desk
A wet football is one of the oldest stories in the sport: the ball gets slick, teams hand it off, somebody coughs it up. Some of that holds up in the numbers and some of it doesn't. Here is what rain actually did across twenty seasons of outdoor NFL games, measured over the full game window rather than just the kickoff hour.
The short answer
Steady rain: 40.1 points vs 44.7 in dry, mild games (126 games, −4.7).
Heavy rain: lead backs +1.26 carries and +9.1 yards vs their own season average.
A small rise in steady rain (+0.28), not statistically significant.
Truly heavy rain is rare — just 19 games at 7.5 mm+. Treat that band as directional only.
Rain and scoring
Every band is compared with outdoor games that were dry and between 50°F and 75°F (1,380 games averaging 44.7 points). Games that were both wet and below 40°F are left out of the rain bands, so cold doesn't get counted as rain.
| Rain over the game | Games | Points | vs dry | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trace (0.1–1 mm) | 380 | 42.4 | -2.5 | -3.19 |
| Light (1–2.5 mm) | 141 | 42.5 | -2.4 | -2.09 |
| Steady (2.5–7.5 mm) | 126 | 40.1 | -4.7 | -3.77 |
| Heavy (7.5 mm+) — directional only | 19 | 39.2 | -4.9 | -1.72 |
Rain games are also a little windier on average (about 9 mph vs 7 mph in the dry group), so part of the drop is wind. Our windiest stadiums guide covers that side of it.
Running backs in the rain
Coaches really do lean on the run when it pours. Each lead back is measured against his own average for the same season, so a workhorse and a committee back are compared fairly.
| Conditions | Starts | Carries | vs own avg | Yards vs avg | YPC vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry | 2674 | 17.3 | -0.13 | -0.6 | 0.00 |
| Light rain | 583 | 17.4 | +0.24 | +0.1 | -0.07 |
| Heavy rain (avg 5.1 mm) | 159 | 18.8 | +1.26 | +9.1 | +0.23 |
The heavy-rain gain in yards is significant (t = 2.75), but yards per carry hardly move. The back isn't running better; he's just getting the ball more. Light rain changes nothing.
Fumbles and turnovers
Steady rain adds about 0.28 fumbles and 0.3 turnovers per game, and neither result clears significance. The 19 heavy-rain games show a jump of 1.4 fumbles, but lost fumbles rise only 0.31, which fits the idea that a loose ball is close to a coin flip. With 19 games, that band is directional only. Cold plus rain is where fumbles rise most clearly, as the turnovers in bad weather study shows.
What to check before kickoff
- Total rain across the three hours of the game, not just the kickoff-hour icon.
- Wind. It often comes with the rain and does more to the passing game.
- Temperature. Below 40°F, cold and wet together are a separate case.
- Roof. Ten stadiums can shut the rain out — see the dome and retractable roof guide.
- Live game-time forecasts are on the NFL weather desk.
How we measured this
Outdoor NFL regular-season games from 2006 to 2025. Rain is ERA5 reanalysis precipitation (Open-Meteo) at each stadium, totalled from kickoff to three hours later. Turnovers and rushing lines are from ESPN box scores. Differences are tested with Welch's t-test, and any band under 40 games is labelled directional only. Figures were taken from our database on 14 October 2026.
Full methods: NFL running backs in wind and rain and NFL turnovers in bad weather. Related: kicking in bad weather, coldest NFL games, and the college football rain guide.
Where this is applied
These findings feed the game-time read on every NFL venue page, using the same sample-size and significance rules published here.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.
Cite this research
Free to republish with a visible credit and a link to this page. Ready-made citations below — click to copy.
Frequently asked
Does rain lower scoring in NFL games?
Yes, modestly. Compared with dry, mild outdoor games (44.7 points), games with steady rain over the game window averaged 40.1, about 4.7 points fewer across 126 games since 2006. Even trace and light rain came in around 2.5 points lower.
Do running backs get more carries in the rain?
In heavy rain, yes. Measured against each back's own season average, lead backs got about 1.3 extra carries and 9.1 extra rushing yards in 159 heavy-rain starts. Yards per carry barely moved, so the gain comes from more volume, not more efficiency. Light rain changed nothing.
Are there more fumbles in rain games?
Slightly more in steady rain (+0.28 per game, not statistically significant). The 19 heavy-rain games show +1.4 fumbles, but that sample is too small to rely on. Lost fumbles rise far less than total fumbles, because who falls on a loose ball is close to a coin flip.
Should I bet the under when it rains?
We don't make picks. Rain forecasts often sharpen close to kickoff and closing totals usually move with them. Use this page as context for how a game may be played, and compare it against the current line.