Research
English Premier League rain, wind and goals
Rain alone did not move English Premier League scoring in our archive, and wind alone did not either. The obvious follow-up is whether the two together matter: a wet pitch plus a wind that keeps the ball in the air, or rain that comes with a strong crosswind. We took every league match since 2010, matched each to archived kickoff-hour rainfall and wind speed at the stadium's own coordinates, split matches into combined rain-and-wind bands, and compared goals and Over 2.5 rates against the dry-and-calm control — and against the bookmakers' own closing odds. Whatever the interaction showed is what is published below.
The headline
Rain and wind together do not measurably move English Premier League scoring. Across 6,120 English Premier League matches from 2010-11 to 2026-27, the 1,451 matches with any measurable rain score +0.08 goals against the dry-and-calm control (t = 1.28, well inside noise by our significance threshold). Add wind on top of the rain and the gap is +0.03 goals (t = 0.37). Against the closing odds, wet matches go Over 55.4% against a market-implied 53.3% (z = 1.61). With calm or breezy wind, each extra millimetre of rain is worth about +0.049 goals — effectively flat. With stronger winds it is about +0.001 goals — also flat. On dry days each extra km/h of wind is worth about -0.004 goals — flat; on wet days it is about -0.004 goals — flat.
Any wet
2.85
+0.08 goals vs dry/calm, season-adjusted
1,451 matches · t = 1.28
Dry and calm control
2.77
1,016 matches
Sample average: 2.80 goals per match
Over 2.5, wet vs market
55.4%
Market implied: 53.3% · z = 1.61
Dry/calm control: 53.9%
Every rain and wind band against the dry-and-calm control
| Weather band | Matches | Avg rain | Avg wind | Total goals | Over 2.5 rate | Over rate vs control | Market implied | Over rate vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry and calm (control) | 1,016 | 0.00 mm | 6.7 km/h | 2.77 | 53.9% | control | 53.5% | +0.5z = 0.30 |
| Dry and breezy | 2,217 | 0.00 mm | 14.9 km/h | 2.83+0.07t = 1.21 | 54.5% | +0.7t = 0.37 | 53.0% | +1.5z = 1.43 |
| Dry and windy | 1,159 | 0.00 mm | 24.0 km/h | 2.740.00t = -0.05 | 51.0% | -2.5t = -1.18 | 52.2% | -1.2z = -0.82 |
| Dry and gale-force | 277 | 0.00 mm | 34.8 km/h | 2.63-0.13t = -1.11 | 50.2% | -3.6t = -1.05 | 52.0% | -1.8z = -0.62 |
| Wet and calm | 176 | 0.50 mm | 6.9 km/h | 2.94+0.18t = 1.22 | 55.7% | +1.9t = 0.48 | 54.7% | +0.9z = 0.26 |
| Wet and breezy | 554 | 0.43 mm | 15.3 km/h | 2.91+0.13t = 1.46 | 56.9% | +2.6t = 1.00 | 53.6% | +3.3z = 1.56 |
| Wet and windy | 469 | 0.52 mm | 24.4 km/h | 2.75-0.01t = -0.12 | 53.7% | -0.2t = -0.07 | 52.9% | +0.8z = 0.35 |
| Wet and gale-force | 252 | 0.58 mm | 35.7 km/h | 2.85+0.10t = 0.89 | 55.2% | +1.9t = 0.54 | 52.5% | +2.6z = 0.85 |
| Dry and windy or stronger | 1,436 | 0.00 mm | 26.1 km/h | 2.72-0.03t = -0.41 | 50.8% | -2.7t = -1.34 | 52.2% | -1.3z = -1.01 |
| Any measurable rain, all wind speeds | 1,451 | 0.49 mm | 20.7 km/h | 2.85+0.08t = 1.28 | 55.4% | +1.5t = 0.74 | 53.3% | +2.1z = 1.61 |
| Wet and windy or stronger | 721 | 0.54 mm | 28.3 km/h | 2.78+0.03t = 0.37 | 54.2% | +0.5t = 0.22 | 52.8% | +1.4z = 0.79 |
The smaller figure in each cell is the gap with its test statistic: season-adjusted against the dry-and-calm control in the goals and "vs control" columns (t), and against the no-vig Over probability implied by each band's own closing odds in the last column (z). Roughly 2 is our threshold before we treat a gap as real; bands under 40 matches are greyed out and flagged, and nothing in a flagged row is quoted anywhere on this site. If bookmakers fully price the combined weather, a band's actual Over rate should sit on top of its market-implied rate.
Season by season
English Premier League scoring drifts across eras, so every comparison above is season-adjusted. This table also shows how wet and windy each season was, so a blustery year cannot quietly drive the headline.
| Season | Matches | Goals per match | Wet share | Windy share | Over 2.5 rate | Market implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | 380 | 2.80 | 21.6% | 31.6% | 54.2% | 50.3% |
| 2011-12 | 380 | 2.81 | 20.8% | 39.2% | 53.7% | 52.3% |
| 2012-13 | 380 | 2.80 | 20.3% | 36.8% | 55.8% | 53.4% |
| 2013-14 | 380 | 2.77 | 21.3% | 50.8% | 51.6% | 51.8% |
| 2014-15 | 380 | 2.57 | 14.5% | 45.8% | 48.4% | 49.9% |
| 2015-16 | 380 | 2.70 | 23.7% | 44.7% | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| 2016-17 | 380 | 2.80 | 19.7% | 33.4% | 54.2% | 51.6% |
| 2017-18 | 380 | 2.68 | 30.8% | 38.4% | 51.1% | 51.3% |
| 2018-19 | 380 | 2.82 | 26.6% | 34.7% | 53.7% | 53.4% |
| 2019-20 | 380 | 2.72 | 25.0% | 41.1% | 52.1% | 54.0% |
| 2020-21 | 380 | 2.69 | 31.3% | 30.5% | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| 2021-22 | 380 | 2.82 | 26.6% | 33.4% | 53.9% | 52.3% |
| 2022-23 | 380 | 2.85 | 22.4% | 24.7% | 52.6% | 53.1% |
| 2023-24 | 380 | 3.28 | 28.7% | 37.4% | 64.7% | 58.9% |
| 2024-25 | 380 | 2.93 | 18.4% | 22.9% | 56.6% | 58.7% |
| 2025-26 | 380 | 2.75 | 27.1% | 20.5% | 55.0% | 54.3% |
| 2026-27 | 40 | 2.85 | 30.0% | 15.0% | 52.5% | 56.2% |
What actually holds up
- Rain and wind together do not move scoring. Across 1,451 wet matches the season-adjusted gap is +0.08 goals (t = 1.28), and the wet-and-windy subset is +0.03 goals (t = 0.37). Both sit short of the |t|≈2 threshold.
- The market column is clean. Wet matches were priced at 53.3% to go Over 2.5 and actually went Over 55.4% — a gap of +2.1 points with z = 1.61. That market gap is short of significance: the closing odds already carry the combined weather effect, which on the goals numbers is roughly nothing.
- The interaction slopes are flat. With calm or breezy wind, each extra millimetre of rain is worth about +0.049 goals — effectively flat. With stronger winds it is about +0.001 goals — also flat. On dry days each extra km/h of wind is worth about -0.004 goals — flat; on wet days it is about -0.004 goals — flat.
Method and limits
- Sample: 6,120 English Premier League matches, 2010-11–2026-27, each with a final score and archived kickoff-hour rainfall and wind speed at the stadium's own coordinates. 1,451 had measurable rain; 2,157 had wind of 20 km/h or more.
- Control group: dry and calm (no measurable rain, wind under 10 km/h). Every figure is season-adjusted — each match against its own season's averages, for both goals and Over 2.5 rate.
- Wind is kickoff-hour speed, not direction or gusts. A crosswind that might affect corners is not isolated here; the data only lets us split on speed and rain together.
- Odds: closing Over/Under 2.5 prices from the football-data.co.uk archive, de-vigged to an implied probability. 6,120 matches carry odds.
- The 40-match minimum and the significance threshold are house rules applied to every study before results are seen.
- Not controlled: team quality, tactics, refereeing eras, pitch drainage, and whether rain arrived during the match rather than at kickoff.
Data generated 2026-09-19. Numbers refresh as the archive tops up; corrections are dated and kept visible.
Where this is applied
These findings feed the game-time read on every Premier League venue page, using the same sample-size and significance rules published here.
Frequently asked
Do rain and wind together lower scoring in the English Premier League?
Rain and wind together do not measurably move English Premier League scoring. Across 1,451 wet league matches since 2010, season-adjusted scoring sits +0.08 goals from the dry-and-calm control of 1,016 matches (t = 1.28, well inside noise by our significance threshold). When wind is added to the rain — wet and windy or stronger — the gap is +0.03 goals (t = 0.37). Neither clears our pre-set significance threshold.
Does the combined weather move Over/Under 2.5 results?
Wet matches go Over 2.5 goals 55.4% of the time, against 53.9% for the dry-and-calm control — a season-adjusted gap of +1.5 percentage points (t = 0.74). Against the closing odds, which implied 53.3%, the gap is +2.1 points (z = 1.61). That market gap is short of significance: the closing odds already carry the combined weather effect, which on the goals numbers is roughly nothing. The soccer totals line is almost always 2.5 goals, so the market moves the price rather than the line.
Could wind matter more than rain on its own?
Dry, windy days (1,159 matches) sit 0.00 goals from the calm control (t = -0.05). Dry, gale-force days (277 matches) sit -0.13 goals away (t = -1.11). Wet and windy days (469 matches) sit -0.01 goals away (t = -0.12), and wet and gale-force days (252 matches) sit +0.10 goals away (t = 0.89). None of these clear the |t|≈2 threshold.
How do rain and wind interact in the data?
With calm or breezy wind, each extra millimetre of rain is worth about +0.049 goals — effectively flat. With stronger winds it is about +0.001 goals — also flat. On dry days each extra km/h of wind is worth about -0.004 goals — flat; on wet days it is about -0.004 goals — flat.
How big is the sample?
6,120 English Premier League matches from 2010-11 to 2026-27, every one matched to archived kickoff-hour weather at the stadium's own coordinates. 1,451 had measurable rain, 2,157 had wind of 20 km/h or more, and 6,120 carry closing Over/Under 2.5 odds for the market comparison.
So should combined weather change how I read an English Premier League total?
On these numbers, no. Rain, wind and temperature have each been tested across the same 6,120-match archive and none moved scoring or the market by enough to clear the pre-set safeguards. A forecast on an English Premier League page is context, not a signal. We keep measuring — and if a future sample reaches significance, the published study will be updated and the live model will follow.