MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) weather and microclimate

Live weather and microclimate analysis for the Melbourne Cricket Ground, with an AI read on how conditions affect scoring.

Melbourne, VIC

Open

Grass

100,024 capacity

Game-time forecast at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground)

Loading the first bounce forecast…

No AFL game is scheduled at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. The 2027 season starts in March. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

AFL Grand Final — Saturday 26 September, 2:30pm AEST at the MCG

Forecast at first bounce, updated all week: Grand Final weather and scoring read

Also here: the NFL's first Australian game — Rams vs 49ers MCG weather recap

Conditions now at the venue

Live conditions are briefly unavailable.

Microclimate profile

Very large playing surface ringed by tall stands, which shelters ground level and makes wind swirl rather than blow cleanly end to end. Surface wind is typically weaker than the forecast suggests. Heavy dew is common on still autumn and winter evenings.

GROUND AXIS

86° (E)

ELEVATION

13 m

ROOF

Open

Wind direction is read against the ground axis: a breeze running along the axis helps or hurts kicking end to end, while a crosswind mostly pushes the ball sideways.

Last games at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground): conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
22 Aug 2026	Melbourne v Western Bulldogs	—	—	195 (87-108)
21 Aug 2026	Collingwood v Brisbane	—	—	255 (96-159)
16 Aug 2026	Essendon v Sydney	—	—	188 (76-112)
15 Aug 2026	Richmond v St Kilda	—	—	139 (45-94)
8 Aug 2026	Melbourne v Fremantle	—	—	222 (113-109)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Scoring baseline at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground)

Reading the venue history…

Upcoming games at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground)

No AFL game is scheduled at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one — the 2027 season starts in March. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Weather normals at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground), month by month

Measured at the ground for every AFL game we have archived here (1058 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
March	86	20.0°C	14.0 km/h	19%
April	193	18.2°C	13.8 km/h	19%
May	174	14.5°C	13.5 km/h	26%
June	146	12.0°C	13.4 km/h	32%
July	173	11.6°C	16.1 km/h	34%
August	174	12.5°C	14.8 km/h	25%
September	108	13.7°C	15.1 km/h	25%

Scoring in matched conditions at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground)

Games here have averaged 176.3 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Wind 20+ km/h

172.5

237 games · -3.8 vs venue average

Cold (under 10°C)

166.8

133 games · -9.5 vs venue average

Warm (25°C+)

193.3

27 games · +17.0 vs venue average

Any rain

167.0

274 games · -9.3 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 6 hours before first bounce once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) weather questions

Less than the raw forecast suggests. The stands are tall and continuous, so a 30 km/h reading in the city usually arrives at ground level broken up and swirling. We discount wind here rather than treating it as an end-to-end advantage.

Yes, on still, clear autumn and winter nights. Once the surface temperature falls to the dew point the ball gets greasy, handling errors rise and the second half typically scores lower than the first.

No. The MCG is fully open air, so every game there is exposed to the forecast at first bounce.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at the MCG. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

AFL Temperature & Scoring
Temperature is the cleanest AFL weather signal: dry matches under 10°C score 9.9 points below their own season average (t=-4.59, n=198), while 25–29°C matches run 12.6 points above it (t=4.88, n=118). Every extra degree is worth about 1.1 points.
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30°C+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Wind & Scoring
Wind below about 20 km/h does nothing measurable to an AFL total. At 20 km/h and above, matches run 5.2 points under their own season average (t=-3.44, n=382 dry matches).
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30 km/h+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Rain & Scoring
Wet games cost 13.6 points on a season-adjusted basis, with the wet end of the scale running at about 3.5 points per millimetre of rain.
4,349 matches across two decades, match-window rainfall

All weather research · How our leans are derived