Marvel Stadium weather and microclimate

Live weather and roof status for Marvel Stadium in Docklands, plus an AI read on whether conditions matter at all tonight.

Melbourne, VIC

Retractable Roof

Grass

53,500 capacity

Game-time forecast at Marvel Stadium

Loading the first bounce forecast…

No AFL game is scheduled at Marvel Stadium right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. The 2027 season starts in March. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

Conditions now at the venue

Live conditions are briefly unavailable.

Microclimate profile

Fully enclosed retractable-roof stadium at Docklands. When the roof is closed there is no wind, no rain and no dew — treat conditions as fully neutral regardless of the external forecast. With the roof open, wind still swirls unpredictably due to the surrounding structure.

GROUND AXIS

155° (SSE)

ELEVATION

10 m

ROOF

Retractable Roof

Wind direction is read against the ground axis: a breeze running along the axis helps or hurts kicking end to end, while a crosswind mostly pushes the ball sideways.

Last games at Marvel Stadium: conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
23 Aug 2026	Essendon v Port Adelaide	—	—	200 (95-105)
22 Aug 2026	Carlton v Fremantle	—	—	201 (119-82)
20 Aug 2026	St Kilda v Gold Coast	—	—	183 (80-103)
16 Aug 2026	Western Bulldogs v Carlton	—	—	164 (82-82)
15 Aug 2026	North Melbourne v Geelong	—	—	235 (110-125)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Scoring baseline at Marvel Stadium

Reading the venue history…

Upcoming games at Marvel Stadium

No AFL game is scheduled at Marvel Stadium right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one — the 2027 season starts in March. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Weather normals at Marvel Stadium, month by month

Measured at the ground for every AFL game we have archived here (972 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
March	61	19.8°C	12.8 km/h	20%
April	171	17.8°C	13.4 km/h	22%
May	184	14.0°C	13.3 km/h	20%
June	155	11.1°C	12.4 km/h	19%
July	203	10.8°C	15.4 km/h	32%
August	186	12.0°C	14.0 km/h	29%
September	12	15.6°C	17.0 km/h	17%

Scoring in matched conditions at Marvel Stadium

Games here have averaged 184.7 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Wind 20+ km/h

184.5

193 games · -0.2 vs venue average

Cold (under 10°C)

183.3

194 games · -1.4 vs venue average

Warm (25°C+)

190.2

29 games · +5.5 vs venue average

Any rain

186.5

238 games · +1.8 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at Marvel Stadium yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 6 hours before first bounce once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

Marvel Stadium weather questions

Only when the roof is open. With the roof closed there is no wind, rain or dew at ground level and we treat conditions as fully neutral — the total should be priced on the teams alone.

The decision is made close to the first bounce and generally follows rain and strong wind. We read the live roof status rather than assuming, so the lean on this page flips to neutral as soon as the roof is confirmed closed.

It plays as a fast, dry surface with no weather interference when the roof is shut, which historically supports cleaner ball movement than an exposed Melbourne night.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at Marvel Stadium. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

AFL Temperature & Scoring
Temperature is the cleanest AFL weather signal: dry matches under 10°C score 9.9 points below their own season average (t=-4.59, n=198), while 25–29°C matches run 12.6 points above it (t=4.88, n=118). Every extra degree is worth about 1.1 points.
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30°C+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Wind & Scoring
Wind below about 20 km/h does nothing measurable to an AFL total. At 20 km/h and above, matches run 5.2 points under their own season average (t=-3.44, n=382 dry matches).
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30 km/h+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Rain & Scoring
Wet games cost 13.6 points on a season-adjusted basis, with the wet end of the scale running at about 3.5 points per millimetre of rain.
4,349 matches across two decades, match-window rainfall

All weather research · How our leans are derived