The Gabba (Brisbane) weather and microclimate

Live weather and microclimate analysis for the Gabba in Brisbane, with an AI read on humidity, storms and scoring.

Brisbane, QLD

Open

Grass

42,000 capacity

Game-time forecast at The Gabba (Brisbane)

Loading the first bounce forecast…

No AFL game is scheduled at The Gabba (Brisbane) right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. The 2027 season starts in March. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

Conditions now at the venue

Live conditions are briefly unavailable.

Microclimate profile

Tight, steep, fully enclosed ground; the high continuous stands substantially cut surface wind and trap heat and humidity. Subtropical, with sudden heavy summer storms and warm humid evenings that keep the dew gap small.

GROUND AXIS

84° (E)

ELEVATION

25 m

ROOF

Open

Wind direction is read against the ground axis: a breeze running along the axis helps or hurts kicking end to end, while a crosswind mostly pushes the ball sideways.

Last games at The Gabba (Brisbane): conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
15 Aug 2026	Brisbane v Gold Coast	—	—	148 (95-53)
7 Aug 2026	Brisbane v Hawthorn	—	—	183 (125-58)
26 July 2026	Brisbane v Port Adelaide	—	—	193 (126-67)
12 July 2026	Brisbane v Essendon	—	—	208 (149-59)
30 May 2026	Brisbane v Fremantle	—	—	181 (78-103)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Scoring baseline at The Gabba (Brisbane)

Reading the venue history…

Upcoming games at The Gabba (Brisbane)

No AFL game is scheduled at The Gabba (Brisbane) right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one — the 2027 season starts in March. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Weather normals at The Gabba (Brisbane), month by month

Measured at the ground for every AFL game we have archived here (277 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
March	16	22.7°C	10.0 km/h	31%
April	41	21.3°C	9.7 km/h	29%
May	54	18.8°C	9.4 km/h	22%
June	34	16.4°C	9.6 km/h	24%
July	48	16.6°C	9.2 km/h	13%
August	59	18.1°C	10.2 km/h	5%
September	20	17.4°C	10.5 km/h	10%
October	5	20.7°C	12.5 km/h	20%

Scoring in matched conditions at The Gabba (Brisbane)

Games here have averaged 177.3 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Any rain

169.9

49 games · -7.4 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at The Gabba (Brisbane) yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 6 hours before first bounce once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

The Gabba (Brisbane) weather questions

Rarely. The ground is tight and fully enclosed, so surface wind is cut sharply. Humidity, heat and storm cells are the conditions that actually change the game here.

High dew points make the ball greasy well before the temperature drops, which lifts fumbles and turnovers and generally drags the total down in the second half.

Summer and early-autumn storm cells can pass through quickly and dump heavy rain on the surface. We read the forecast at first bounce rather than the daily outlook so a short cell is not over-weighted.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at the Gabba. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

AFL Temperature & Scoring
Temperature is the cleanest AFL weather signal: dry matches under 10°C score 9.9 points below their own season average (t=-4.59, n=198), while 25–29°C matches run 12.6 points above it (t=4.88, n=118). Every extra degree is worth about 1.1 points.
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30°C+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Wind & Scoring
Wind below about 20 km/h does nothing measurable to an AFL total. At 20 km/h and above, matches run 5.2 points under their own season average (t=-3.44, n=382 dry matches).
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30 km/h+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Rain & Scoring
Wet games cost 13.6 points on a season-adjusted basis, with the wet end of the scale running at about 3.5 points per millimetre of rain.
4,349 matches across two decades, match-window rainfall

All weather research · How our leans are derived