GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park) weather and microclimate

Live weather and microclimate analysis for GMHBA Stadium at Kardinia Park in Geelong, with an AI read on conditions and scoring.

Geelong, VIC

Open

Grass

36,000 capacity

Game-time forecast at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park)

Loading the first bounce forecast…

No AFL game is scheduled at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park) right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. The 2027 season starts in March. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

Conditions now at the venue

Live conditions are briefly unavailable.

Microclimate profile

Coastal Geelong ground exposed to Corio Bay; strong, cold south-westerly winds are common and the ground is notorious for a genuine goal-to-goal wind advantage. Ball travel differs markedly by end when the breeze is up.

GROUND AXIS

22° (NNE)

ELEVATION

3 m

ROOF

Open

Wind direction is read against the ground axis: a breeze running along the axis helps or hurts kicking end to end, while a crosswind mostly pushes the ball sideways.

Last games at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park): conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
22 Aug 2026	Geelong v Richmond	—	—	209 (133-76)
8 Aug 2026	Geelong v Essendon	—	—	167 (117-50)
16 July 2026	Geelong v St Kilda	—	—	177 (102-75)
3 July 2026	Geelong v Brisbane	—	—	224 (101-123)
12 June 2026	Geelong v Gold Coast	—	—	165 (105-60)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Scoring baseline at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park)

Reading the venue history…

Upcoming games at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park)

No AFL game is scheduled at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park) right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one — the 2027 season starts in March. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Weather normals at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park), month by month

Measured at the ground for every AFL game we have archived here (180 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
March	6	20.1°C	12.4 km/h	17%
April	29	16.2°C	17.5 km/h	21%
May	34	15.3°C	14.6 km/h	15%
June	29	12.1°C	14.9 km/h	34%
July	33	11.3°C	16.3 km/h	33%
August	46	13.0°C	16.6 km/h	24%

Scoring in matched conditions at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park)

Games here have averaged 173.3 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Wind 20+ km/h

167.0

52 games · -6.3 vs venue average

Cold (under 10°C)

153.5

28 games · -19.8 vs venue average

Any rain

165.5

45 games · -7.8 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park) yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 6 hours before first bounce once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park) weather questions

It sits closer to the coast and to Corio Bay, so southerly air arrives with less land warming. On a winter night the ground can read several degrees below an MCG game happening at the same time.

More than at the enclosed Melbourne grounds. The stand geometry does not fully ring the ground, so a strong southerly runs through and gives one end a real advantage.

Rain with wind does. Rain alone on a still night is far less damaging than the same fall driven by a 30 km/h southerly, which is the combination we weight hardest here.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at GMHBA Stadium. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

AFL Temperature & Scoring
Temperature is the cleanest AFL weather signal: dry matches under 10°C score 9.9 points below their own season average (t=-4.59, n=198), while 25–29°C matches run 12.6 points above it (t=4.88, n=118). Every extra degree is worth about 1.1 points.
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30°C+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Wind & Scoring
Wind below about 20 km/h does nothing measurable to an AFL total. At 20 km/h and above, matches run 5.2 points under their own season average (t=-3.44, n=382 dry matches).
2,640 dry matches, 2004–2026, roofed Docklands games excluded, season-adjusted; 30 km/h+ band is below the pre-set 40-match minimum and directional only
AFL Rain & Scoring
Wet games cost 13.6 points on a season-adjusted basis, with the wet end of the scale running at about 3.5 points per millimetre of rain.
4,349 matches across two decades, match-window rainfall

All weather research · How our leans are derived