Northwest Stadium weather

    Live weather and microclimate analysis for Northwest Stadium, with a game-time forecast read for every Commanders home game.

    Home team: Washington Commanders
    Roof: Open
    Surface: Grass
    Capacity: 82,000

    Game-time forecast at Northwest Stadium
    Weather lean unlocks 6h before start

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders — kickoff Sun 8:20 pm venue time (in 10 days).

    Game is more than 5 days out — forecast not available yet.

    Lean pending: These are the kickoff readings. Weather lean unlocks 6h before start, once the forecast is settled enough to call.

    Lead-time reliability still being measured for NFL

    This is the forecast for kickoff, not the weather right now. Current readings are below.

    The next NFL game at Northwest Stadium is Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday 1 November at 8:20 pm venue time. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

    Next match at Northwest Stadium: Commanders v Eagles

    Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles weather at Northwest Stadium

    Washington Commanders host Philadelphia Eagles at Northwest Stadium on Sunday 1 November at 8:20 pm venue time.

    Live stadium conditions

    Live conditions are not available right now. They refresh automatically when the station responds.

    Live readings are context only. The AI analysis and lean use the forecast at kickoff.

    Why Northwest Stadium plays differently

    Northwest Stadium is a large open bowl sunk into flat suburban Maryland ground with no shelter nearby, so wind reaches the rim cleanly and swirls through the seating gaps at the corners. It plays neutral through the warm months; the venue only really shows up late in the year, when cold fronts drop dense air over the field and northwesterly gusts make long field goals and deep throws less reliable than the raw forecast implies.

    Game-time weather read

    Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders · Sun 8:20 pm venue time

    Lean unlocks 6 hours before kickoff

    Nothing is published earlier than that. The forecast for kickoff at Northwest Stadium is not settled enough further out to be worth reading.

    Stadium Map

    Upcoming games at Northwest Stadium

    • Philadelphia Eagles at Washington CommandersSun, 1 Nov, 8:20 pm venue time

    Scoring baseline at Northwest Stadium

    Reading the venue history…

    Weather normals at Northwest Stadium, month by month

    Measured at the ground for every NFL game we have archived here (164 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

    MonthGamesAvg tempAvg windWet games
    January651.4°F7.1 mph20%
    September3674.2°F5.4 mph27%
    October4164.9°F7.3 mph17%
    November3752.2°F6.5 mph19%
    December4443.1°F6.4 mph17%

    Scoring in matched conditions at Northwest Stadium

    Games here have averaged 44.3 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

    Any rain
    45.3
    24 games · +1.0 vs venue average

    These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

    Last games at Northwest Stadium: conditions vs total

    DateMatchConditionsOur readTotal
    11 Oct 2026Washington Commanders v New York Giants——54 (27-27)
    27 Sept 2026Washington Commanders v Seattle Seahawks——64 (33-31)
    25 Dec 2025Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys——53 (23-30)
    20 Dec 2025Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles——47 (18-29)
    30 Nov 2025Washington Commanders v Denver Broncos——53 (26-27)

    Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

    Northwest Stadium weather FAQs

    Yes. The Commanders home stadium in Landover, Maryland has been known as FedExField and Commanders Field; it is the same open-air venue, renamed. Our historical scoring baselines cover all of those names.

    The site is flat and open, so wind reaches the bowl with little obstruction and swirls at the corners. Behind a cold front, northwesterly gusts of 15-25 mph are the main kicking concern.

    December and January games commonly sit in the 30s°F (around 0-4°C), occasionally colder with wind chill. Dense cold air shortens carry on deep passes and long field goals.

    About this page

    Northwest Stadium weather is updated live and produces a game-time forecast read for every home game. The page uses one permanent URL for the venue; match-up details rotate as the schedule changes, so search results always point to current conditions.

    What the research says

    The published studies behind the read on this page at Northwest Stadium. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

    • Lambeau Field Cold Weather Advantage

      Green Bay won 68.4% of 38 freezing home games versus 72.7% overall. Freezing games scored 46.0 points versus 44.9 above 45°F (Welch p=0.694): no clear extra cold advantage, directional only.

      161 Lambeau regular-season home games, 2006–2025; 38 at 32°F or below

    • Monday Night Football Scoring

      Monday night games scored 0.34 points below other games after season adjustment (n=358, Welch t=-0.45, p≈0.65): a null result. Against the close they leaned Under (46–31, -2.4 pts, n=79, p≈0.06), directional only.

      4,229+ NFL regular-season games 2006–2026; 358 on Monday night, 79 with closing totals

    • NFL Dome Totals vs the Market

      Indoor NFL games finished 2.2 points above the closing total on average (208 Overs, 174 Unders, n=385, t=3.27), and every full season from 2019 to 2022 leaned the same way. Outdoor games were flat against the total.

      5,141 NFL games 2006–2025; 1,164 with closing totals (385 indoor)

    • NFL RB Rushing in Wind & Rain

      Bad weather buys volume, not efficiency. In heavy rain the lead back takes 1.26 more carries for 9.1 more yards than his own season form; in 15–20 mph wind he takes 0.97 more carries with no significant yardage gain. Yards per carry never clears significance in any band.

      3,416 qualifying outdoor lead-back games by 135 backs, 2006–2025

    • NFL QB Passing in Wind

      Passing output falls about 1.6 yards per extra mph of wind. At 10–15 mph a starter throws 6.4 fewer yards, 0.17 fewer yards per attempt and completes 0.94% less than his own season form. Interceptions and sacks do not move.

      4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025

    • NFL QB Passing in Freezing Cold

      Below 20°F a starter throws 21.7 fewer yards, completes 2.9% less and throws 0.28 fewer touchdowns than his own season form — all significant. Ordinary winter cold (20–45°F) costs single-digit yardage. Interceptions and sacks never move.

      4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025

    • NFL Temperature & Scoring

      Scoring is flat from freezing to 85°F — every band sits within about a point and a half of mild weather, and no band beat the closing total. Only severe cold under 20°F looks different, on a sample too small to price.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025 (2,695 dry)

    • NFL Wind & Totals

      Wind under 10 mph does nothing to scoring. At 10–15 mph a game loses about 2.6 points; at 15–20 mph, about 4. Winning margins don't move — it is purely a totals effect.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    • NFL Field Goal Accuracy in Wind & Cold

      Accuracy falls about 0.32 percentage points per extra mph of wind. Attempts in 10–14 mph wind convert 2.5 points below calm conditions and 15–19 mph wind costs 3.4 points; cold weather (32–49°F) costs 1.7 points against mild.

      11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts by 313 kickers, 2008–2025, with 5,456 indoor attempts held as a weather-free control

    • NFL Turnovers in Bad Weather

      Total fumbles rise clearly when rain and cold arrive together; overall turnovers and fumbles lost do not clear our bar — who recovers a loose ball is close to a coin flip.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    • NFL Climate Shock: Dome Teams in the Cold

      Climate shocks are rare, but when dome and warm-weather teams play outdoors in the cold the Under has hit 15 of 21 graded games (71.4%), 6.8 points below the closing total — directional only, under our 40-game minimum.

      1,689 outdoor games across 10 seasons, era-aware venue history

    • Highest-Elevation NFL Stadiums

      Denver's Empower Field at Mile High is the highest NFL stadium at about 5,280 feet; #2 Allegiant Stadium (about 2,060 ft) has a fixed roof, and the highest open-air venue after Denver is Arrowhead at about 800 feet.

      Elevations at venue coordinates for all 30 NFL stadiums, snapshot 2026-10-16

    • How Rain Affects NFL Games

      Steady rain cut NFL scoring by 4.7 points across 126 outdoor games (t=-3.77); lead backs gained 1.26 carries and 9.1 yards in heavy rain; turnovers barely moved.

      Outdoor NFL regular-season games, 2006-2025

    • Hottest NFL Games in History

      Only 14 outdoor NFL games have kicked off at 90°F+ since 2006, and they scored 45.3 points vs 44.2 in mild weather (t=0.31, p=0.76): heat doesn't lower scoring. All-time hottest kickoff: 109°F, Pickle Juice Game, 2000.

      3,474 outdoor NFL regular-season games with kickoff temperature, 2006-2025

    • Hard Rock Stadium Sideline Sun

      Miami's visiting sideline sits in the sun, but the heat edge does not show up: the Dolphins went 27-35 (margin -2.1) in Sept-Oct home games vs 55-29 (+2.9) from November on (Welch t=-1.98).

      146 Dolphins regular-season home games at Hard Rock Stadium, 2006-2026

    • NFL Dome & Retractable Roof Stadiums

      10 NFL stadiums have a roof (5 fixed, 5 retractable). Indoor games averaged 47.1 points vs 44.1 outdoors, and 385 lined indoor games (2019-2023) finished +2.2 vs the closing total, 208 Overs to 174 Unders.

      5,141 NFL regular-season games 2006-2025; 385 indoor games with closing totals

    • Denver Mile High Altitude Advantage

      At 5,280 ft, kickers at Mile High made 68.0% of 50+ yard field goals versus 62.4% at other outdoor venues, and 20.6% of Denver attempts are from 50+ (vs 14.7% elsewhere) — but the Broncos' home-win edge (+2.84 margin vs +2.11) is modest and not adjusted for team strength.

      165 Broncos regular-season home games (2006-2026) and 606 field-goal attempts at Empower Field at Mile High

    • How Wind and Cold Affect NFL Field Goals

      Across 11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts (2008–2025), wind is the real kicking variable: 10–14 mph winds cost 1.6 points of make rate overall and 3.5–4.0 points on kicks of 40+ yards, while freezing temperatures run 1.9 points below expectation without clearing significance. Domes convert 87.2%, with the biggest edge from 50+ yards (72.0% vs 66.0% outdoors).

      11,697 outdoor regular-season NFL field-goal attempts (2008–2025) by 313 kickers, plus a 5,456-attempt indoor control group

    • Highmark Stadium Snow & Lake Effect

      Across 155 Bills home games since 2006, December–January football in Orchard Park averages 35.8°F and 41.4 total points versus 46.5 in September–November, with Buffalo's home margin rising from +2.7 to +6.7. Wind is the reliable scoring suppressant (10–14 mph: −5.2 points vs calm); true heavy-snow games are rare enough to be directional only. Since 2020, late-season games finished +0.6 vs the closing total — the market prices the cold in.

      155 Bills regular-season home games (2006–2026) with kickoff weather; 36 games with consensus closing totals (2020+)

    All weather research · How our leans are derived

    Other NFL weather resources