Gillette Stadium weather

Live weather and microclimate analysis for Gillette Stadium, with a game-time forecast read for every Patriots home game.

Home team: New England Patriots

Roof: Open

Surface: Turf

Capacity: 65,326

Elevation: 131 m

Field bearing: 152.2° SSE

Game-time forecast at Gillette Stadium

Loading the kickoff forecast…

No NFL game is scheduled at Gillette Stadium right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. Other venues are still hosting games this round. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

Live stadium conditions

Live conditions are not available right now. They refresh automatically when the station responds.

Live readings are context only. The AI analysis and lean use the forecast at kickoff.

Why Gillette Stadium plays differently

Open, exposed site in New England. Nor easter wind and driving rain sharply reduce passing efficiency and field goal range late in the season.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at Gillette Stadium yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 6 hours before kickoff once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

Upcoming games at Gillette Stadium

No NFL game is scheduled at Gillette Stadium right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Scoring baseline at Gillette Stadium

Reading the venue history…

Weather normals at Gillette Stadium, month by month

Measured at the ground for every NFL game we have archived here (165 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
January	8	39.7°F	8.2 mph	38%
September	37	69.9°F	7.2 mph	25%
October	44	57.7°F	7.7 mph	14%
November	34	46.2°F	8.6 mph	15%
December	42	37.5°F	8.3 mph	24%

Scoring in matched conditions at Gillette Stadium

Games here have averaged 46.0 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Freezing (≤32°F)

45.9

15 games · -0.1 vs venue average

Any rain

43.1

33 games · -2.9 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Last games at Gillette Stadium: conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
18 Oct 2026	New England Patriots v New York Jets	—	—	45 (26-19)
11 Oct 2026	New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders	—	—	62 (45-17)
20 Sept 2026	New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	23 (20-3)
4 Jan 2026	New England Patriots v Miami Dolphins	—	—	48 (38-10)
14 Dec 2025	New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills	—	—	66 (31-35)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Gillette Stadium weather FAQs

Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are common in autumn and winter, with higher gusts during coastal storms. The open exposure means field-level wind matches the forecast more closely than enclosed venues.

Steady rain plus wind is the classic Gillette weather problem. Wet footballs, reduced grip and a slick surface make deep passing and field-goal accuracy harder without necessarily stopping the run game.

It can be raw and windy, though usually not as frigid as Green Bay or Buffalo. Wind chill off the coastal plain is the bigger factor than the air temperature alone.

About this page

Gillette Stadium weather is updated live and produces a game-time forecast read for every home game. The page uses one permanent URL for the venue; match-up details rotate as the schedule changes, so search results always point to current conditions.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at Gillette Stadium. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

Lambeau Field Cold Weather Advantage
Green Bay won 68.4% of 38 freezing home games versus 72.7% overall. Freezing games scored 46.0 points versus 44.9 above 45°F (Welch p=0.694): no clear extra cold advantage, directional only.
161 Lambeau regular-season home games, 2006–2025; 38 at 32°F or below
Monday Night Football Scoring
Monday night games scored 0.34 points below other games after season adjustment (n=358, Welch t=-0.45, p≈0.65): a null result. Against the close they leaned Under (46–31, -2.4 pts, n=79, p≈0.06), directional only.
4,229+ NFL regular-season games 2006–2026; 358 on Monday night, 79 with closing totals
NFL Dome Totals vs the Market
Indoor NFL games finished 2.2 points above the closing total on average (208 Overs, 174 Unders, n=385, t=3.27), and every full season from 2019 to 2022 leaned the same way. Outdoor games were flat against the total.
5,141 NFL games 2006–2025; 1,164 with closing totals (385 indoor)
NFL RB Rushing in Wind & Rain
Bad weather buys volume, not efficiency. In heavy rain the lead back takes 1.26 more carries for 9.1 more yards than his own season form; in 15–20 mph wind he takes 0.97 more carries with no significant yardage gain. Yards per carry never clears significance in any band.
3,416 qualifying outdoor lead-back games by 135 backs, 2006–2025
NFL QB Passing in Wind
Passing output falls about 1.6 yards per extra mph of wind. At 10–15 mph a starter throws 6.4 fewer yards, 0.17 fewer yards per attempt and completes 0.94% less than his own season form. Interceptions and sacks do not move.
4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025
NFL QB Passing in Freezing Cold
Below 20°F a starter throws 21.7 fewer yards, completes 2.9% less and throws 0.28 fewer touchdowns than his own season form — all significant. Ordinary winter cold (20–45°F) costs single-digit yardage. Interceptions and sacks never move.
4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025
NFL Temperature & Scoring
Scoring is flat from freezing to 85°F — every band sits within about a point and a half of mild weather, and no band beat the closing total. Only severe cold under 20°F looks different, on a sample too small to price.
3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025 (2,695 dry)
NFL Wind & Totals
Wind under 10 mph does nothing to scoring. At 10–15 mph a game loses about 2.6 points; at 15–20 mph, about 4. Winning margins don't move — it is purely a totals effect.
3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025
NFL Field Goal Accuracy in Wind & Cold
Accuracy falls about 0.32 percentage points per extra mph of wind. Attempts in 10–14 mph wind convert 2.5 points below calm conditions and 15–19 mph wind costs 3.4 points; cold weather (32–49°F) costs 1.7 points against mild.
11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts by 313 kickers, 2008–2025, with 5,456 indoor attempts held as a weather-free control
NFL Turnovers in Bad Weather
Total fumbles rise clearly when rain and cold arrive together; overall turnovers and fumbles lost do not clear our bar — who recovers a loose ball is close to a coin flip.
3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025
NFL Climate Shock: Dome Teams in the Cold
Climate shocks are rare, but when dome and warm-weather teams play outdoors in the cold the Under has hit 15 of 21 graded games (71.4%), 6.8 points below the closing total — directional only, under our 40-game minimum.
1,689 outdoor games across 10 seasons, era-aware venue history
Highest-Elevation NFL Stadiums
Denver's Empower Field at Mile High is the highest NFL stadium at about 5,280 feet; #2 Allegiant Stadium (about 2,060 ft) has a fixed roof, and the highest open-air venue after Denver is Arrowhead at about 800 feet.
Elevations at venue coordinates for all 30 NFL stadiums, snapshot 2026-10-16
How Rain Affects NFL Games
Steady rain cut NFL scoring by 4.7 points across 126 outdoor games (t=-3.77); lead backs gained 1.26 carries and 9.1 yards in heavy rain; turnovers barely moved.
Outdoor NFL regular-season games, 2006-2025
Hottest NFL Games in History
Only 14 outdoor NFL games have kicked off at 90°F+ since 2006, and they scored 45.3 points vs 44.2 in mild weather (t=0.31, p=0.76): heat doesn't lower scoring. All-time hottest kickoff: 109°F, Pickle Juice Game, 2000.
3,474 outdoor NFL regular-season games with kickoff temperature, 2006-2025
Hard Rock Stadium Sideline Sun
Miami's visiting sideline sits in the sun, but the heat edge does not show up: the Dolphins went 27-35 (margin -2.1) in Sept-Oct home games vs 55-29 (+2.9) from November on (Welch t=-1.98).
146 Dolphins regular-season home games at Hard Rock Stadium, 2006-2026
NFL Dome & Retractable Roof Stadiums
10 NFL stadiums have a roof (5 fixed, 5 retractable). Indoor games averaged 47.1 points vs 44.1 outdoors, and 385 lined indoor games (2019-2023) finished +2.2 vs the closing total, 208 Overs to 174 Unders.
5,141 NFL regular-season games 2006-2025; 385 indoor games with closing totals
Denver Mile High Altitude Advantage
At 5,280 ft, kickers at Mile High made 68.0% of 50+ yard field goals versus 62.4% at other outdoor venues, and 20.6% of Denver attempts are from 50+ (vs 14.7% elsewhere) — but the Broncos' home-win edge (+2.84 margin vs +2.11) is modest and not adjusted for team strength.
165 Broncos regular-season home games (2006-2026) and 606 field-goal attempts at Empower Field at Mile High
How Wind and Cold Affect NFL Field Goals
Across 11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts (2008–2025), wind is the real kicking variable: 10–14 mph winds cost 1.6 points of make rate overall and 3.5–4.0 points on kicks of 40+ yards, while freezing temperatures run 1.9 points below expectation without clearing significance. Domes convert 87.2%, with the biggest edge from 50+ yards (72.0% vs 66.0% outdoors).
11,697 outdoor regular-season NFL field-goal attempts (2008–2025) by 313 kickers, plus a 5,456-attempt indoor control group
Highmark Stadium Snow & Lake Effect
Across 155 Bills home games since 2006, December–January football in Orchard Park averages 35.8°F and 41.4 total points versus 46.5 in September–November, with Buffalo's home margin rising from +2.7 to +6.7. Wind is the reliable scoring suppressant (10–14 mph: −5.2 points vs calm); true heavy-snow games are rare enough to be directional only. Since 2020, late-season games finished +0.6 vs the closing total — the market prices the cold in.
155 Bills regular-season home games (2006–2026) with kickoff weather; 36 games with consensus closing totals (2020+)

All weather research · How our leans are derived