Highmark Stadium weather

    Live weather and microclimate analysis for Highmark Stadium, with a game-time forecast read for every Bills home game.

    Home team: Buffalo Bills
    Roof: Open
    Surface: Turf
    Capacity: 71,608
    Elevation: 183 m
    Field bearing: 0.6° N

    Game-time forecast at Highmark Stadium
    Weather lean unlocks 6h before start

    Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills — kickoff Sun 1:00 pm venue time (in 9 days).

    Game is more than 5 days out — forecast not available yet.

    Lean pending: These are the kickoff readings. Weather lean unlocks 6h before start, once the forecast is settled enough to call.

    Lead-time reliability still being measured for NFL

    This is the forecast for kickoff, not the weather right now. Current readings are below.

    The next NFL game at Highmark Stadium is Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Sunday 1 November at 1:00 pm venue time. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

    Next match at Highmark Stadium: Bills v Ravens

    Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens weather at Highmark Stadium

    Buffalo Bills host Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium on Sunday 1 November at 1:00 pm venue time.

    Live stadium conditions

    Live conditions are not available right now. They refresh automatically when the station responds.

    Live readings are context only. The AI analysis and lean use the forecast at kickoff.

    Why Highmark Stadium plays differently

    Most wind-affected outdoor stadium in the NFL. Exposed rural site near Lake Erie with lake-effect snow and sustained crosswinds; kicks and deep passes are heavily penalised in gusts.

    Game-time weather read

    Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills · Sun 1:00 pm venue time

    Lean unlocks 6 hours before kickoff

    Nothing is published earlier than that. The forecast for kickoff at Highmark Stadium is not settled enough further out to be worth reading.

    Stadium Map

    Upcoming games at Highmark Stadium

    • Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsSun, 1 Nov, 1:00 pm venue time

    Scoring baseline at Highmark Stadium

    Reading the venue history…

    Weather normals at Highmark Stadium, month by month

    Measured at the ground for every NFL game we have archived here (157 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

    MonthGamesAvg tempAvg windWet games
    January729.0°F10.9 mph86%
    September3967.0°F8.3 mph35%
    October3457.9°F9.2 mph39%
    November3545.8°F9.3 mph34%
    December4236.7°F11.1 mph48%

    Scoring in matched conditions at Highmark Stadium

    Games here have averaged 45.2 combined points across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

    Wind 15+ mph
    43.2
    22 games · -2.0 vs venue average
    Freezing (≤32°F)
    45.4
    19 games · +0.2 vs venue average
    Any rain
    43.2
    64 games · -2.0 vs venue average

    These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

    Last games at Highmark Stadium: conditions vs total

    DateMatchConditionsOur readTotal
    4 Oct 2026Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots——55 (26-29)
    27 Sept 2026Buffalo Bills v Los Angeles Chargers——40 (24-16)
    17 Sept 2026Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions——72 (41-31)
    4 Jan 2026Buffalo Bills v New York Jets——43 (35-8)
    28 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills v Philadelphia Eagles——25 (12-13)

    Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

    Highmark Stadium weather FAQs

    Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are common, with gusts well above that. The open, flat terrain funnels lake wind straight into the bowl, so the in-stadium breeze is often stronger and more cross-field than the nearby forecast.

    Yes. Narrow snow bands off Lake Erie can dump heavy snow on Orchard Park while nearby areas stay clear. The stadium has seen some of the league's most famous snow games because of this microclimate.

    Wind and snow make deep passing and kicking harder, which tends to compress scoring. We show the historical scoring average in windy or cold games on this page rather than publishing a blanket claim.

    About this page

    Highmark Stadium weather is updated live and produces a game-time forecast read for every home game. The page uses one permanent URL for the venue; match-up details rotate as the schedule changes, so search results always point to current conditions.

    What the research says

    The published studies behind the read on this page at Highmark Stadium. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

    • Lambeau Field Cold Weather Advantage

      Green Bay won 68.4% of 38 freezing home games versus 72.7% overall. Freezing games scored 46.0 points versus 44.9 above 45°F (Welch p=0.694): no clear extra cold advantage, directional only.

      161 Lambeau regular-season home games, 2006–2025; 38 at 32°F or below

    • Monday Night Football Scoring

      Monday night games scored 0.34 points below other games after season adjustment (n=358, Welch t=-0.45, p≈0.65): a null result. Against the close they leaned Under (46–31, -2.4 pts, n=79, p≈0.06), directional only.

      4,229+ NFL regular-season games 2006–2026; 358 on Monday night, 79 with closing totals

    • NFL Dome Totals vs the Market

      Indoor NFL games finished 2.2 points above the closing total on average (208 Overs, 174 Unders, n=385, t=3.27), and every full season from 2019 to 2022 leaned the same way. Outdoor games were flat against the total.

      5,141 NFL games 2006–2025; 1,164 with closing totals (385 indoor)

    • NFL RB Rushing in Wind & Rain

      Bad weather buys volume, not efficiency. In heavy rain the lead back takes 1.26 more carries for 9.1 more yards than his own season form; in 15–20 mph wind he takes 0.97 more carries with no significant yardage gain. Yards per carry never clears significance in any band.

      3,416 qualifying outdoor lead-back games by 135 backs, 2006–2025

    • NFL QB Passing in Wind

      Passing output falls about 1.6 yards per extra mph of wind. At 10–15 mph a starter throws 6.4 fewer yards, 0.17 fewer yards per attempt and completes 0.94% less than his own season form. Interceptions and sacks do not move.

      4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025

    • NFL QB Passing in Freezing Cold

      Below 20°F a starter throws 21.7 fewer yards, completes 2.9% less and throws 0.28 fewer touchdowns than his own season form — all significant. Ordinary winter cold (20–45°F) costs single-digit yardage. Interceptions and sacks never move.

      4,555 outdoor starts by 107 quarterbacks, 2006–2025

    • NFL Temperature & Scoring

      Scoring is flat from freezing to 85°F — every band sits within about a point and a half of mild weather, and no band beat the closing total. Only severe cold under 20°F looks different, on a sample too small to price.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025 (2,695 dry)

    • NFL Wind & Totals

      Wind under 10 mph does nothing to scoring. At 10–15 mph a game loses about 2.6 points; at 15–20 mph, about 4. Winning margins don't move — it is purely a totals effect.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    • NFL Field Goal Accuracy in Wind & Cold

      Accuracy falls about 0.32 percentage points per extra mph of wind. Attempts in 10–14 mph wind convert 2.5 points below calm conditions and 15–19 mph wind costs 3.4 points; cold weather (32–49°F) costs 1.7 points against mild.

      11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts by 313 kickers, 2008–2025, with 5,456 indoor attempts held as a weather-free control

    • NFL Turnovers in Bad Weather

      Total fumbles rise clearly when rain and cold arrive together; overall turnovers and fumbles lost do not clear our bar — who recovers a loose ball is close to a coin flip.

      3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025

    • NFL Climate Shock: Dome Teams in the Cold

      Climate shocks are rare, but when dome and warm-weather teams play outdoors in the cold the Under has hit 15 of 21 graded games (71.4%), 6.8 points below the closing total — directional only, under our 40-game minimum.

      1,689 outdoor games across 10 seasons, era-aware venue history

    • Highest-Elevation NFL Stadiums

      Denver's Empower Field at Mile High is the highest NFL stadium at about 5,280 feet; #2 Allegiant Stadium (about 2,060 ft) has a fixed roof, and the highest open-air venue after Denver is Arrowhead at about 800 feet.

      Elevations at venue coordinates for all 30 NFL stadiums, snapshot 2026-10-16

    • How Rain Affects NFL Games

      Steady rain cut NFL scoring by 4.7 points across 126 outdoor games (t=-3.77); lead backs gained 1.26 carries and 9.1 yards in heavy rain; turnovers barely moved.

      Outdoor NFL regular-season games, 2006-2025

    • Hottest NFL Games in History

      Only 14 outdoor NFL games have kicked off at 90°F+ since 2006, and they scored 45.3 points vs 44.2 in mild weather (t=0.31, p=0.76): heat doesn't lower scoring. All-time hottest kickoff: 109°F, Pickle Juice Game, 2000.

      3,474 outdoor NFL regular-season games with kickoff temperature, 2006-2025

    • Hard Rock Stadium Sideline Sun

      Miami's visiting sideline sits in the sun, but the heat edge does not show up: the Dolphins went 27-35 (margin -2.1) in Sept-Oct home games vs 55-29 (+2.9) from November on (Welch t=-1.98).

      146 Dolphins regular-season home games at Hard Rock Stadium, 2006-2026

    • NFL Dome & Retractable Roof Stadiums

      10 NFL stadiums have a roof (5 fixed, 5 retractable). Indoor games averaged 47.1 points vs 44.1 outdoors, and 385 lined indoor games (2019-2023) finished +2.2 vs the closing total, 208 Overs to 174 Unders.

      5,141 NFL regular-season games 2006-2025; 385 indoor games with closing totals

    • Denver Mile High Altitude Advantage

      At 5,280 ft, kickers at Mile High made 68.0% of 50+ yard field goals versus 62.4% at other outdoor venues, and 20.6% of Denver attempts are from 50+ (vs 14.7% elsewhere) — but the Broncos' home-win edge (+2.84 margin vs +2.11) is modest and not adjusted for team strength.

      165 Broncos regular-season home games (2006-2026) and 606 field-goal attempts at Empower Field at Mile High

    • How Wind and Cold Affect NFL Field Goals

      Across 11,697 outdoor field-goal attempts (2008–2025), wind is the real kicking variable: 10–14 mph winds cost 1.6 points of make rate overall and 3.5–4.0 points on kicks of 40+ yards, while freezing temperatures run 1.9 points below expectation without clearing significance. Domes convert 87.2%, with the biggest edge from 50+ yards (72.0% vs 66.0% outdoors).

      11,697 outdoor regular-season NFL field-goal attempts (2008–2025) by 313 kickers, plus a 5,456-attempt indoor control group

    • Highmark Stadium Snow & Lake Effect

      Across 155 Bills home games since 2006, December–January football in Orchard Park averages 35.8°F and 41.4 total points versus 46.5 in September–November, with Buffalo's home margin rising from +2.7 to +6.7. Wind is the reliable scoring suppressant (10–14 mph: −5.2 points vs calm); true heavy-snow games are rare enough to be directional only. Since 2020, late-season games finished +0.6 vs the closing total — the market prices the cold in.

      155 Bills regular-season home games (2006–2026) with kickoff weather; 36 games with consensus closing totals (2020+)

    All weather research · How our leans are derived

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