Fenway Park weather

Live weather and microclimate analysis for Fenway Park, with an AI read on how the Charles River wind and the Green Monster shape the total.

Roof: Open

Surface: Grass

Elevation: 21 m

Field bearing: 45° NE

Game-time forecast at Fenway Park

Loading the first pitch forecast…

No MLB game is scheduled at Fenway Park right now. The next fixture appears here automatically as soon as the draw lists one. Other venues are still hosting games this round. Live conditions at the ground are briefly unavailable — the reading refreshes on its own.

Live ballpark conditions

Live conditions are not available right now. They refresh automatically when the station responds.

Live readings are context only. The AI analysis and lean use the forecast at first pitch.

Why Fenway Park plays differently

Wind off the Charles and Back Bay swirls over the Green Monster; a southwest wind carries out to right while a northeast wind pins balls against the Monster.

Game-time weather read

No fixture is scheduled at Fenway Park yet. The game-time weather read is written automatically 24 hours before first pitch once a match is on the calendar.

Stadium Map

Upcoming games at Fenway Park

No MLB game is scheduled at Fenway Park right now. This list fills itself the moment the draw lists one. Recent results, the venue scoring baseline and the live conditions read above are current either way.

Scoring baseline at Fenway Park

Reading the venue history…

Weather normals at Fenway Park, month by month

Measured at the ground for every MLB game we have archived here (474 games). Months with fewer than 5 games are left out rather than averaged from a handful.

Month	Games	Avg temp	Avg wind	Wet games
April	79	52.4°F	9.9 mph	13%
May	89	63.5°F	8.9 mph	17%
June	81	72.9°F	8.1 mph	16%
July	75	79.0°F	8.2 mph	16%
August	81	76.3°F	6.6 mph	17%
September	65	68.8°F	7.2 mph	11%

Scoring in matched conditions at Fenway Park

Games here have averaged 9.7 combined runs across all conditions. Each slice below needs at least 10 games at this ground to appear.

Wind 15+ mph

9.0

27 games · -0.7 vs venue average

Cold (under 50°F)

8.0

43 games · -1.7 vs venue average

Any rain

8.8

72 games · -0.9 vs venue average

These are descriptive historical averages at this ground, not predictions for any future game, and not a claim about betting markets. Slices overlap — a cold game can also be a windy one.

Last games at Fenway Park: conditions vs total

Date	Match	Conditions	Our read	Total
25 Sept 2026	Boston Red Sox v Chicago Cubs	—	—	2 (2-0)
24 Sept 2026	Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians	—	—	1 (0-1)
23 Sept 2026	Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians	—	—	1 (1-0)
22 Sept 2026	Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians	—	—	5 (2-3)

Rows without conditions are archive results — final scores at this ground. Rows tagged with conditions and our read build up as we grade games here.

Ballpark weather FAQs

A southwest wind generally helps balls carry to right field. A northeast wind blows in from the harbor and can hold balls inside the park, including some that would leave other venues.

It raises hit totals and can create cheap home runs to left, but it also turns long outs into doubles off the wall. The net effect is less predictable than the raw dimensions suggest; wind direction is usually the bigger mover of the Over/Under.

Night games in April and early May often sit in the 40s°F (5–10°C) with a raw wind off the water. Cold, dense air hurts carry and is a classic Under setup even before the wind is considered.

About this page

Fenway Park weather is updated live and produces a game-time forecast read for every home game. The page uses one permanent URL for the venue; match-up details rotate as the schedule changes, so search results always point to current conditions.

What the research says

The published studies behind the read on this page at Fenway Park. Every figure is season-adjusted, with sample sizes and t-statistics shown.

MLB Playoff Roof Rules
In the postseason MLB decides roof movement. Late-season October open-air games averaged 1.91 HR vs 2.33 in September (n=92, p=0.004); runs not significant (p=0.13).
92 October and 1,470 September open-air regular-season games, 2021–2026
Wind Blowing Out vs the Line
Games with wind blowing out at 10+ mph finished +0.07 runs vs the closing total compared with all other games (t=0.53); 597 Overs, 612 Unders. The market already prices it.
11,547 outdoor games with a closing total, 2021–2026; 1,250 with wind out at 10+ mph
Wrigley Field Wind
At Wrigley Field, wind blowing out vs in is worth +4.04 runs (t=6.62, 95% CI +2.84 to +5.25) and +2.06 home runs per game, season-adjusted. The April lake-breeze pattern does not show up in how often wind blows in.
475 Wrigley Field games, 2021–2026; 106 wind out, 176 wind in
Windiest MLB Stadiums
Oracle Park is the windiest outdoor park at about 14 mph at game time, but Wrigley Field is where wind moves scoring most (+4.04 runs out vs in). Only 4 of 18 measurable parks show a real wind gap.
Outdoor MLB games, 2021–2026, every open-air park
Coors Field Humidor & Altitude
Coors Field games averaged 2.43 more runs than other parks (2021–2026) but only 0.25 more home runs; games went over the closing total 48.8% of the time.
471 Coors Field and 13,628 other MLB regular-season games, 2021–2026
MLB Rain Delays
The median recorded MLB rain delay since 2021 is 65 minutes; 6.6% of open-air games were delayed against 0.2% under retractable roofs, and 242 games were postponed for weather.
Every scheduled MLB regular-season game, 2021–2026
MLB Ballpark Wind Sensitivity
Wind sensitivity is concentrated in a few parks: at Wrigley Field wind blowing out vs in is worth +4.0 runs (t=6.62), park- and season-adjusted; at most parks the gap is a run or less.
11,581 outdoor games at 30 parks, 2021–2026; parks ranked only with 40+ out and 40+ in games
MLB Retractable Roofs
At the seven retractable-roof parks, roof-open games scored +0.13 runs (t=0.87) and +0.07 home runs (t=1.26) vs closed, park- and season-adjusted; against the closing total the gap was -0.10 (t=-0.66).
3,281 games at 7 retractable-roof parks, 2021–2026; 3,278 with closing totals
MLB Roof Open vs Closed
At retractable-roof parks, roof-open games scored +0.13 runs (t=0.87) and +0.07 home runs (t=1.26) vs closed, park- and season-adjusted; against the closing total the gap was -0.10 (t=-0.66).
3,281 games at 7 retractable-roof parks, 2021–2026; 3,278 with closing totals
MLB Wind Direction & Scoring
Wind blowing in costs 0.24 home runs and 0.34 runs per game against calm. Wind blowing out lifts home runs (+0.16) but not total runs.
11,581 outdoor games, 2021–2026, resolved against each park's own field bearing
MLB Temperature & Scoring
Cold is the cleaner signal: under 50°F a game loses 1.14 runs and 0.72 home runs against mild weather. Heat helps less — 90°F+ adds 0.64 runs and 0.38 home runs. Against the closing total, cold games lean under versus mild conditions, but no band clears our bar (t between -1.74 and -1.87) — directional only.
10,717 dry outdoor games, 2021–2026, season- and park-adjusted against the 70–79°F control; closing-line check on 6,000+ games
Highest-Elevation MLB Stadiums
Coors Field is the highest MLB ballpark at about 5,200 feet, more than 4,000 feet above #2 Chase Field (about 1,090 ft); only three parks sit above 1,000 feet.
Elevations at venue coordinates for all 30 MLB ballparks, snapshot 2026-10-19
Marine Layer Baseball
Across 2,232 games at five coastal parks since 2021, West Coast parks score 8.45 runs per game vs 9.06 elsewhere, but home runs are identical (2.31) and night games show no significant drop in runs or home runs. Coastal games finished +0.38 vs the closing total — the market prices it in.
2,232 open-air games at Oracle, T-Mobile, Petco, Dodger and Angel Stadium (2021–2026) vs 9,205 at other parks
How Temperature Affects Baseball
Across 10,422 open-air games since 2021, home runs climb from 1.64 per game below 50°F to 2.76 at 85°F+ (cold vs mild: t = −10.1) and runs from 8.18 to 9.90 — about +0.24 home runs and +0.43 runs per 10°F. Versus closing totals the band differences are not significant (hot vs mild t = 0.97): the market prices temperature in.
10,422 open-air MLB games (2021–2026) with game-time temperature at each park's coordinates; 10,389 with closing totals
April Baseball and Early-Season Scoring
April averaged 2.07 home runs versus 2.37 in May–September across 2021–2025 open-air games. The home-run dip repeats in all five seasons, but April 2023 scored more runs than later that year. Equal-weight same-park/season differences are −0.32 home runs and −0.43 runs; exploratory, not causal.
1,389 April and 7,333 May–September open-air regular-season games, 2021–2025; 110 park-season pairs
Yankee Stadium vs Citi Field
Across 808 games since 2021, the two New York parks share nearly identical game-time weather (71.5°F vs 71.4°F, 8.5 mph wind at both) but not scoring: Yankee Stadium averages 2.74 home runs per game versus 2.25 at Citi Field (t ≈ 4.1), a gap that repeats in all five seasons. Total runs are closer (8.70 vs 8.33, not significant), and both parks finish slightly over their closing totals — the park effect is priced in.
808 regular-season games at Yankee Stadium (405) and Citi Field (403), 2021–2025; 794 with closing totals

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