NFL Weather
Monday Night Football Weather
By OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Monday Night Football kicks off after sunset, so conditions change while the game is played. This page shows tonight's matchup with two forecast reads — kickoff and the expected fourth quarter — covering temperature drop, evening wind, dew and rain, plus our plain-English Over/Under weather read where a total is posted.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Monday, November 16 at 8:15 PM EST · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Kickoff · 8:15 PM
Expected 4th quarter · 11:15 PM
| How the game changes | Kickoff | 4th quarter | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | 43° | 40° | -3° |
| Wind | 4 mph N | 5 mph NW | +1 mph |
| Rain chance | 0% | 0% | no change |
| Humidity | 73% | 78% | +5 pts |
| Dew point | 35°F | 34°F | no change |
Below the level where our wind and totals study found scoring starts to fall.
Temperature drops about 3° from kickoff to the fourth quarter — typical for a post-sunset game, and worth knowing for the kicking game and ball grip late.
Our weather read leans Under — Visiting side is 19°F colder than its home climate moves this total by -2.99 points versus a calm, mild game, past the 2 points threshold for the Under..
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof
Open air
Kickoff (ET)
8:15 PM
What our Monday night study found
358
Regular-season Monday night games studied since 2006
−0.34
Points vs other games after season adjustment — no real effect (p ≈ 0.65)
46–31
Under–Over vs the closing total in 79 games with a line — directional only (p ≈ 0.06)
The time slot itself doesn't move scoring. What changes on a Monday night is the weather across the game — so that's what this page reads. Read the full study →
Why Monday night weather is different
An ~8:15 PM ET kickoff means the entire game is played after dark. Temperatures fall through the second half, humidity and dew rise on the ball and turf, and afternoon wind often eases after sunset. A single "game-time" forecast misses that arc — which is why this page reads the start and the end of the game separately. Our NFL wind and totals study and kicking conditions index show why those late-game shifts matter. And the slot itself? Our Monday night scoring study found no primetime scoring effect across 358 games.
OverUnderWeather Research Desk
Independent data analysis on public sports and weather records. Studies match historical game outcomes to archived game-window weather, apply pre-set sample and significance rules, and publish null results when that is what the data show. Editorial policy and corrections log.