Fantasy football weather report

These are not rules of thumb. Each figure comes from a published study measured against a player's or game's own season baseline, with sample sizes and significance rules stated up front.

• Quarterbacks. Passing output falls about 1.6 yards per extra mph of wind. At 10–15 mph a starter throws 6.4 fewer yards and completes 0.94% less than his own season form; interceptions and sacks do not move. QB wind study (4,555 outdoor starts, 2006–2025).
• Kickers. Accuracy falls about 0.32 percentage points per extra mph of wind. Attempts in 10–14 mph wind convert 2.5 points below calm; 15–19 mph costs 3.4 points, hardest on 40–49 yard attempts. Kicker study (11,697 outdoor attempts, 2008–2025).
• Scoring. Wind under 10 mph does nothing. At 10–15 mph a game loses about 2.6 points; at 15–20 mph, about 4. Wind and totals study (3,474 outdoor games, 2006–2025).
• Severe cold. Below 20°F a starter throws 21.7 fewer yards and 0.28 fewer touchdowns than his season form. Ordinary winter cold (20–45°F) costs only single-digit yardage. QB cold study.

Weather is one input, not a start/sit oracle. The measured effects above are real but modest in the 10–15 mph range — they matter most at the margins: coin-flip flex decisions, kicker streams, and yards-per-attempt props. At 15 mph and above, the passing and kicking drag is large enough to factor into any close call.

What weather does not do: it does not move interceptions, sacks, or winning margins in any way we can measure, and ordinary cold without wind is mostly a myth. Bands under our 40-game minimum sample are labelled directional only and never used as headline advice.

• Live NFL stadium weather dashboard
• NFL Kicking Conditions Index — this week's adjusted field-goal percentages by distance.
• Thursday Night Football weather
• All weather research